About a year ago I cleaned up my old "butterflies" blog post (one of the most popular) and submitted it to the Journal on Policy and Complex Systems. After acceptance, review, revision, and a lot of waiting, the journal volume is now out, and you can read and download the improved version of the paper. Hope you like it!
EDIT: Please do not read the paper as it appears on the Journal's web site. There was an editing mix-up that caused the journal's version of the paper to be incorrect. Please read this version of the paper instead (until the journal version is fixed).